Wednesday, March 28. 2007
CFNAI-M3 for February
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-Month Moving Average
A quick update of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.03 in February, up from –0.72 in January. The production and income category made a strong positive contribution to the index, which was offset by the negative contributions in the other three broad categories of indicators — employment, consumption and housing, and sales.
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased from –0.23 in January to –0.02 in February, suggesting that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. With regard to inflation, February’s three-month moving average also indicates balanced inflationary pressure over the coming year.
Index shows economic growth near average in February (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 26. Mar. 2007
As I noted in comments to the cap-goods post, "[f]or now I remain cautious but optimistic that both the sky-is-falling and the growth-is-back crowds will be wrong this year, but more data like these.."
FD: still long synthetic puts
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