
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 3-Month Moving Average
A quick update of the
Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.03 in February, up from –0.72 in January. The production and income category made a strong positive contribution to the index, which was offset by the negative contributions in the other three broad categories of indicators — employment, consumption and housing, and sales.
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased from –0.23 in January to –0.02 in February, suggesting that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. With regard to inflation, February’s three-month moving average also indicates balanced inflationary pressure over the coming year.
Index shows economic growth near average in February (PDF)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 26. Mar. 2007
As I noted in
comments to the cap-goods post, "[f]or now I remain cautious but optimistic that both the sky-is-falling and the growth-is-back crowds will be wrong this year, but more data like these.."
FD: still long synthetic puts
ISM PMI and Nonmanufacturing Business Activity, 1997-2007 Here is a quick update to my last look at the ISM data. The slowdown trends remain in place, though still above 50 on both series and their six-month averages. Both seem to fit the last few CFNA
Tracked: Apr 04, 17:40
Inflation expectations vs consumer prices, ten-year treasury less inflation-indexed yield vs CPI year-over-year change, 2003-2007A quick update to check that the market still agrees with the CFNAI that there is little inflation pressure up ahead. Infl
Tracked: Apr 18, 16:33
S&P 500 index and 10-year Treasury futures, 9. May 2007, 11:18 and 11:22 PDT Boy, I love watching the market whipsaw after a Fed statement as it tries to make up its mind. Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the
Tracked: May 09, 18:50
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from –0.12 in February to –0.30 in March, suggesting that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, March’s three-month moving average ind
Tracked: May 10, 13:42