Wednesday, May 2. 2007
Pending sales
"Quite good" was revised up slightly, but the good news didn't last long.
Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator, show sales closed in April are likely to remain soft, with some drag possible in May as well, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index*, based on contracts signed in March, registered 104.3 — down 10.5 percent from March 2006 when it was 116.5, and is 4.9 percent below an upwardly revised February index of 109.7. The index is the lowest since a reading of 103.5 in March 2003, coincidentally, the middle of the housing boom.
*The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions..
Pending Home Sales Indicate Near-Term Softness
National Association of Realtors, 1. May 2007
Continued punk housing numbers are no great surprise. That leg up I predicted last month may have come and gone with the RUF's little rally from the 24s to the 27s. If so, I missed the chance to top-tick it.
FD: no homebuilder positions
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Homeowner vacancy rates by units in structure, 1968-2007 Given today's poor pending sales, I revisited the for-sale-only vacancies that convince me residential housing has not bottomed. Immediately, the skeptic in me sees that elevated vacancy rates in
Tracked: May 02, 05:17
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Tracked: May 09, 18:50
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in April to the lowest level in almost four years, dimming prospects for a quick recovery in housing.Shobhana Chandra, U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 2.6% in April to 5.99 Mln RateBloomberg, 25.
Tracked: May 25, 14:48
Existing home sales rate per 100,000 civilian, noninstitutional population, 1998-2007 This chart shows exactly what you should have expected from the pending-sales index, a return to sales rates last seen around 2003. While still somewhat elevated compa
Tracked: May 25, 17:59