Pure ugliness

Aggregate Weekly Hours: Private Industries per Civilan, Noninstitutional Population, 1964-2009

During the current recession, both the inflow and outflow rates have shifted significantly, with high levels of firing and low levels of hiring, similar to what was observed in the 1970s and 1980s. We are currently at a historically low outflow rate, meaning that the unemployed find it very difficult to get work and average unemployment spells are getting much longer. At the same time, the recent increase in the inflow rate is comparable to what was observed in the 1970s and 1980s. These factors combined are creating especially weak labor market conditions.

Daly, Hobijn and Kwok, Jobless Recovery Redux?
FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-18, 5. June, 2009

Like James Hamilton, I have some hopes that moderating initial claims numbers aren't just noise. So when everyone and his mother began noting Jeff Frankels solid point about aggregate hours, I thought I'd take a quick stab.

There are roughly fifty moving parts missing from a real analysis here (demography, female labor-force participation, changing government share of the economy, etc etc). No matter how you slice them, these data are ugly. We first cracked the current level of aggregate hours per population in 1964.

1964, when the participation rate was seven points lower.

Pure ugliness.

Full disclosure: my bonus this year was de minimis. Plus keeping my job. I was happy.