Friday, October 2. 2009
More ugliness
Civilian Employment-Population Ratio, Monthly, Percent, Seasonally Adjusted, 1970-2009
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point in September to 65.2 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.8 percent, also declined over the month and has decreased by 3.9 percentage points since the recession began in December 2007.
Employment Situation News Release
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2. October, 2009
I'll update the pure ugliness chart later today if I can stomach it.
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This chart may be misleading, reflecting not just a change in economic conditions, but a demographic change. People born between 1945 and 1950 are now in their 60s, and retiring. I would like to see the chart with population 18-62 as the denominator. Best would be a chart of employment of 25-55 year old people divided by 25-55 year old population.
I think you have a point, but not because folks now in their 60s are retiring. I do agree that you want to focus on the prime earnings years of 25-54, to elide changes in youth unemployment and retirement age.
Turns out it's just as ugly, if not uglier, but it's not available as a quick-and-easy FRED2 chart. You have to hit the BLS tables. Employment-Population Ratio - 25-54 yrs. was 62.6% in January, 1948, back when women did not work. That ratio hit a local peak of 80.2% in early 1990 and troughed at 78.1% in 1993. It stayed above 81% from July 1997 to March 2001. It hit a local peak of 80.3% in January, 1997.
It is currently a little over 75%.
It's ugly out there.
Turns out it's just as ugly, if not uglier, but it's not available as a quick-and-easy FRED2 chart. You have to hit the BLS tables. Employment-Population Ratio - 25-54 yrs. was 62.6% in January, 1948, back when women did not work. That ratio hit a local peak of 80.2% in early 1990 and troughed at 78.1% in 1993. It stayed above 81% from July 1997 to March 2001. It hit a local peak of 80.3% in January, 1997.
It is currently a little over 75%.
It's ugly out there.
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